Height–Diameter Ratios Decode Contrasting Drought Strategies Modulated by Stand Structure in Temperate Conifer Plantations

Climate change is intensifying drought stress in temperate forests, yet the mechanisms governing gradual versus threshold responses remain unclear, limiting adaptive management. This study tested whether tree morphological traits can help detect these response patterns and whether they vary with species identity, drought timescale, and stand structure. Using 2026 plot records (1022 larch, Larix principis-rupprechtii Mayr; 1004 Chinese pine, Pinus tabuliformis Carrière) from plantations across northern China, we combined random forest and generalized additive models to evaluate the height-to-diameter (H/D) ratio as a drought indicator. The H/D ratio outperforms height or diameter alone in detecting drought responses. Two distinct nonlinear strategies were identified: larch exhibited high sensitivity to spring drought with a threshold near SPEI ≈ −0.47, while Chinese pine showed resilience to short-term stress but nonlinear responses to cumulative drought (thresholds 0.07–0.12). These differences align with biomass allocation patterns, with Chinese pine maintaining lower H/D ratios. Stand structure significantly influenced responses, with strong Age × Density × Drought interactions (p < 0.001) highlighting vulnerability in young, dense stands. Overall, the H/D ratio provides a candidate early-warning indicator of drought vulnerability and may support species-specific monitoring and risk screening in young, high-density stands, although experimental validation is still needed.