Importance: Pure autonomic failure (PAF) can be the prodromal presentation of Parkinson disease (PD), dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), and multiple system atrophy (MSA), although phenoconversion rates and predictors have not been systematically reported. Objective: To estimate phenoconversion rates for MSA, PD, and DLB separately and grouped as central α-synucleinopathies and identify clinical predictors of phenoconversion in patients with PAF. Data Sources: PubMed and Embase databases from inception to June 2025. Study Selection: Longitudinal studies including patients with confirmed PAF reporting data on incidence and/or predictors of phenoconversion. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Studies were screened and data extracted by 2 independent investigators according to PRISMA guidelines. A meta-analysis was performed using generic inverse-variance random-effects models. Main Outcomes and Measures: PD, DLB, MSA, and central α-synucleinopathy phenoconversion incidence rates as per 100 person-years were the main outcomes. Incidence rates were log transformed and pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis. Clinical predictors of phenoconversion were reported as secondary outcomes. Prediction intervals and meta-regression explored study-level moderators. Results: A total of 9 studies comprising 900 individuals with PAF (mean SD age at onset, 63.1 4.3 years; 63.8% male) were included. During the mean (SD) 6.4 (2.0) years of follow-up, 270 of 900 individuals with PAF (30%) experienced phenoconversion to a central α-synucleinopathy (12% to MSA, 11% to DLB, 7% to PD) with a pooled incidence rate of 5.09 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 3.79-6.85; approximately 5% per year). Phenoconversion rates for MSA (pooled incidence rate, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.29-2.99) were highest in the first years of follow-up, whereas Lewy body disorders showed more constant phenoconversion rates (DLB pooled incidence rate, 1.56; 95% CI, 0.94-2.61; PD pooled incidence rate, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.75-2.41). Hyposmia was the only predictor with diagnostic value to distinguish between those with phenoconversion to PD and DLB (hyposmia pooled risk ratio, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.26-2.97) and MSA, although rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) and subtle motor signs were consistent predictors of phenoconversion to any central α-synucleinopathy. Heterogeneity was partly explained by follow-up duration. Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that PAF may be a prodromal presentation of PD, DLB, or MSA with phenoconversion incidence rates similar to those of RBD. A combination of clinical (RBD, subtle motor signs, hyposmia) and in-development biomarkers may help refine the phenoconversion trajectories of people with PAF providing an invaluable opportunity for early diagnosis and intervention.
Virameteekul et al. (Mon,) studied this question.