Using International Waterbird Census data spanning 1993–2022, we analysed temporal trends in the abundance and community composition of wintering waterbirds in the Venice Lagoon (NE Italy). We examined total numbers, major lagoon macro-areas (fish farms, open lagoon, coastal littoral zone, minor wetlands), species-level and guild-level trends and assessed climate-related community changes through the Community Temperature Index (CTI). Total wintering waterbird abundance increased markedly over the study period, from 74,348 birds in 1993 to 445,350 in 2022. Fish farms (about 20% of the total area) hosted the largest number of individuals (about 83%) and accounted for most of the lagoon-wide increase, while open lagoon (15%) and coastal littoral (<2%) areas showed weaker and more variable dynamics. Species-level analyses revealed pronounced heterogeneity, with strong increases in several Anatidae, contrasted by stable or declining trends in other species. The CTI exhibited a significant long-term increase, indicating a progressive shift towards communities dominated by warm-affinity species. CTI decomposition nevertheless showed this signal was disproportionately driven by a limited number of highly abundant species. Our results indicate that wintering waterbird dynamics in the Venice Lagoon are shaped by the interaction between large-scale climatic processes and local habitat management, particularly within fish farms. While management practices can likely sustain exceptionally high wintering numbers and potentially buffer climate-driven redistribution, they may also promote strong species dominance and associated ecological risks. Integrating long-term census data with climate and functional indicators provides a robust framework for understanding and managing Mediterranean wetlands under ongoing climate change.
Scarton et al. (2026) studied this question.