From Warning to Action: Local Government Capacity Gaps in Last-Mile EWS in Flood-Prone Chiang Rai, Thailand

Last-mile early warning systems (EWS) often fall short not because warnings are missing, but because people cannot act on them in time. This study examines local EWS capacity and its relationship to warning-to-action performance in flood-prone Chiang Rai Province, Thailand, where fast-onset flooding and limited lead times make last-mile actionability especially critical. Using a cross-sectional survey of 50 local government organizations (LGOs) conducted between December 2025 and January 2026, the study assesses capacity across four EWS pillars—disaster risk knowledge and governance, monitoring, dissemination, and preparedness—and examines which enablers and barriers shape actionability along the Receive → Understand → Trust → Act chain. Overall capacity was moderate to high: governance and dissemination/communication were relatively stronger, monitoring/decision support was moderate, and preparedness/response was the weakest pillar. A covariance-based structural equation model suggests a cumulative pathway linking governance, monitoring, dissemination, and preparedness, with preparedness emerging as the most proximate factor associated with fewer warning-to-action constraints (β = −0.364). The model explains only a modest share of variance in the actionability gap (R2 = 0.109), indicating that effective last-mile EWS depends not only on warning delivery but also on feasible local response and contextual factors beyond institutional capacity. No statistically significant capacity differences were found across LGO types, although subdistrict administrative organizations reported higher average constraints. These findings highlight preparedness as the key operational lever for strengthening last-mile EWS through routine preparedness functions, clearer municipal–community roles, actionable guidance, redundant communication, and inclusive support for vulnerable groups.