South Korea's THAAD Decision at the Domestic–International Nexus: Preferences, Information, and Constraints

South Korean President Park Geun‐hye's 2016 decision to authorize the deployment of the U.S. Forces Korea THAAD system—and Beijing's subsequent economic and diplomatic coercion—marked a decisive inflection point in Seoul's China policy. This article analyzes how both South Korea's progressive and conservative coalitions revised their expectations regarding China and domestic public opinion through the protracted episode. The result has been a bipartisan resignation that South Korea is now structurally positioned to disappoint China. Yet, an enduring hope persists in Seoul that a new equilibrium has been reached. This conflicts with Beijing's likely belief that, through the calibrated use of carrots and sticks, its neighbor will progressively accommodate Chinese interests—a contradiction set to deepen as Beijing's expectations rise in step with its growing power.