Inferring early genetic progression in cancers with unobtainable premalignant disease

HNSCC, which lacks premalignant tissue, and uncovered its previously unknown progression, identifying early drivers. We converted relative timing estimates of driver mutations and HPV integration to years before diagnosis based on a clock-like mutational signature. We associated the timing of transitions to aneuploidy with increased intratumor genetic heterogeneity and shorter overall survival. Our approach can establish previously unknown early genetic progression of cancers with unobtainable premalignant tissue, supporting development of experimental models and methods for early detection, interception and prognostication.