D1.2 Energy flexibility and resilience framework

The work presented in Deliverable D1.2 focuses on assessment frameworks for evaluating buildings’ energy flexibility and resilience. Specifically, it addresses energy flexibility in buildings connected to district heating networks (DHNs), emphasizing their ability to manage peak loads by shaving or shifting demand to reduce stress on DHN heat production and distribution systems. In terms of resilience, the task explores a building’s ability to remain habitable or return to a livable condition after a disruptive event (e.g., power outage), especially when mechanical systems for heating, cooling, or ventilation are not functioning. About energy flexibility framework activities: Although buildings and building stocks have significant thermal mass that can be used to shift peak loads, this potential remains largely untapped. Current knowledge is fragmented and mostly based on isolated demonstration projects or limited in time duration studies. The UPCHANGE project takes a holistic approach to energy flexibility and demand-side management (DSM), delivering: • A flexibility assessment framework – to identify where flexibility is most needed by DHNs and where buildings can offer the greatest impact. This is the focus of Deliverable D1.2. • Long-term demonstrations of DSM – involving a large number of selected buildings, aiming to extract lessons learned and identify effective DSM strategies across different building types (to be reported in Deliverable D3.3). • An exploration of alternative business models – focusing on improved engagement of all key stakeholders compared to current practices (to be covered in Deliverable D4.3). The main goal of the first phase of work on energy flexibility is to develop a framework and a method to identify buildings supporting flexibility in DHN-connected buildings and support DSM efforts. This process draws on digital data sources such as smart heat meters (SHMs), energy performance certificates (EPCs), and the building register (BBR). It also relies on collaboration with key stakeholders: district heating utilities, large building owners (e.g., municipalities), and DSM technology providers — leveraging their expertise, know-how and motivations to address bilateral needs and requirements. In conclusion, the task objective has been achieved. The developed flexibility assessment framework—based on available digital data and tailored insights from specific DHN needs, combined with local stakeholder collaboration—can effectively guide the identification and prioritization of buildings for DSM. The successful delivery of the task objective is evidenced by the joint effort of all stakeholders in selecting the buildings for long-term DSM demonstration and selection of buildings. About energy resilience framework activities: Although sustainability has long been the primary focus of building assessment, the increasing frequency and severity of disruptive events requires that buildings and district energy systems are also resilient, i.e., able to maintain acceptable service levels and/or recover to a habitable state during and after shocks such as heatwaves, coldwaves, power outages, and hardware/control faults, (Shuo and Dong-Jie, 2023). While previous research has addressed specific hazards—most notably heatwaves and, to a lesser extent, blackouts—quantitative and scalable resilience assessment approaches that consistently cover multiple disruption types across both building and district heating/cooling (DH/DC) levels remain fragmented (Baniassadi, et al., 2018), (Shabnam and Hamdy, 2021), (Kreling et al. 2023). UPCHANGE addresses these gaps with a holistic, scalable resilience program that delivers: • A resilience assessment framework: defining phases along the resilience curve (Preevent, Absorb, Recovery, Adapt) and a KPI catalogue covering both buildings and DH/DC networks. This document focuses on the framework and KPI basis. • A disturbance scenario library: credible scenarios for heatwaves and coldwaves (grounded in historical records and scenario sampling for demo regions) plus event models for power outages and hardware/control faults. • A model-to-KPI pipeline, i.e., computability paths from simulators to KPIs: building-level (e.g., EnergyPlus) and DH/DC network simulators, with synchronized weather/event triggers and clear units, and calculation windows. Main goal and current status. The overall objective is to identify, quantify, and compare resilience performance across buildings and DH/DC networks under multiple disruptions, thereby supporting prioritisation of measures and strategies. A Scopus-based PRISMA-guided systematic review resulted in a final evidence base of 42 publications and a consolidated catalogue of 100 candidate KPIs (after synonym merging and harmonisation). From these, a balanced final set of 15 KPIs was defined based on three selection principles: (i) direct computability or robust inferability from standard simulator outputs, (ii) coverage of all four resilience phases, and (iii) interpretability for the disruption classes addressed in UPCHANGE (heat/cold stress, power outages, and hardware/control faults). Application and demonstration of the full framework on case studies is addressed in subsequent project tasks (Task 4.1). Show more