Performance prediction and carbon balance estimation of perovskite photovoltaics through multiscale simulations

• A multiscale cell-to-system modelling framework for FAPbI 3 -based perovskite photovoltaics (PVs) is presented. • SCAPS-1D and PVsyst simulations are integrated to translate cell-level parameters into megawatt-scale system performance. • The proposed framework demonstrates strong energy yield and system performance potential for perovskite PV deployment in hot climatic conditions. • Energy exceedance probability analysis is used to assess the reliability and bankability of the simulated PV system. • The study highlights the significant environmental benefits of perovskite PV systems through reduced carbon emissions. We present a multiscale computational analysis of FAPbI 3 -based perovskite photovoltaics, correlating cell-level performance to system-level energy generation. A planar cell structure, FTO 2 3 -OMeTAD, is modelled in SCAPS-1D under AM1.5G illumination (1000 W.m −2 ) at 300 K. The simulated cell achieved performance metrics as V OC = 0.995 V, J SC = 23.37 mA.cm −2 , FF = 75.38%, and PCE = 17.53% which are consistent with the reported experimental results. These cell-level metrics are scaled to a 300 W p module and subsequently used in PVsyst to design a 1 MW grid-connected PV system located in Ahmedabad, India. The system configuration comprises 3328 modules (256 strings × 13 modules) and 9 (100 kW) inverters. The system produces an annual energy yield of 1604.4 MWh and average performance ratio of 80.4%, indicating high energy conversion efficiency under hot and humid local climatic conditions. Seasonal analysis reveals lower yields during summer-monsoon months due to elevated temperatures and reduced irradiance. Energy exceedance probability analysis yields P50 and P90 values of 1604.4 MWh and 1459.8 MWh respectively. Furthermore, carbon footprint evaluation indicates an annual emission saving of 1668 tCO 2 . Moreover, the system shows degradation in performance ratio of 4.2–4.5% and energy production of 80–81 MWh/yr against rising thermal and mismatch losses thus demonstrating the sensitivity of modelled PV system to variations in system parameters including losses. Overall, the study demonstrates the technical feasibility and environmental benefits of perovskite PV technology and provides a scalable framework for translating cell-level parameters into utility-scale system performance.