Exploring Soil Management Pathways for Germany - Applying the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Soil Management Futures

Sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural management depends on sustaining soil multifunctionality, the foundation of all agricultural production. As demand for agricultural and bio-based products rises due to population growth, dietary shifts, and the bioeconomy transition, scenario-based approaches can guide long-term decision-making under uncertainty. This study presents five German Soil Management Pathways (DE-SMPs), developed through a combined sectoral and geographical downscaling of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems. The methodology integrates stakeholder-driven trend identification across demographic, economic, technological, institutional, and environmental drivers with expert-based narrative construction to derive national and sector specific scenarios. The resulting pathways reveal contrasting futures for soil health and demonstrate that soil multifunctionality outcomes depend critically on the interplay between policy and governance, technological trajectories, and societal priorities. Technology emerges as a necessary but insufficient condition, effective only when embedded in supportive policy and institutional frameworks. The results emphasize that soil multifunctionality is fundamentally interconnected with broader societal choices regarding environmental governance, trade, technological investment, and commitment to sustainability transitions.