Creative Exports in a Fragmented Global Economy: The Role of Trade, Cultural, and Political Openness

This study examines the determinants of creative goods exports within a multidimensional openness framework that integrates trade, cultural, and political openness. Its importance stems from the growing strategic role of the creative economy in international trade and sustainable development, particularly under conditions of deglobalization pressures, re-globalization, and geoeconomic fragmentation. While previous empirical research has largely treated openness dimensions separately, this study argues that their interaction may offer a more accurate explanation of creative export performance. Using unbalanced panel data for 13 countries from the MENA region over the period 2002–2022, the study applies a Panel ARDL model estimated through the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. The analysis focuses on whether political openness reinforces the effects of cultural and trade openness on creative goods exports. The findings reveal a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Cultural openness and political openness exert positive and significant long-run effects on creative goods exports, whereas trade openness does not appear significant in isolation. The interaction between cultural and political openness is positive and significant, indicating that institutional openness enhances the export benefits of cultural integration. By contrast, the interaction between trade and political openness is negative in the long run, suggesting diminishing marginal gains under stronger institutional integration. Overall, the study highlights that the sustainability of creative exports relies more on the interplay between cultural connectivity and institutional quality than solely on trade liberalization.