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May 9, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Impact of Climate Change on the Growth Dynamics of Native Tree Species (Pinus Sylvestris - In Azerbaijan)

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NSNasirova Afruz SattarOdlar Yurdu UniversityAEAbdullayeva Gulare ElmanOdlar Yurdu University

Key Points

  • The aim is to understand how climate change affects the growth dynamics of Pinus sylvestris in Azerbaijan.
  • Dendro-climatological analysis covering the period 1900-2026
  • Utilization of tree-ring chronologies and climate data
  • Statistical methods including EPS, response function analysis, and moving correlation analysis
  • Pinus sylvestris growth positively correlated with winter temperatures (January-March) with p<0.05.
  • Notable ring width reductions observed in drought years (e.g., 1907, 1976, 2019).
  • Recovery in growth after drought years indicates high adaptive potential.

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on the growth dynamics of Pinus sylvestris in Azerbaijan through dendro-climatological analysis covering the period 1900–2026. Using tree-ring chronologies, climate data, and statistical methods (EPS, response function analysis, moving correlation analysis, SEA), the research reveals species-specific and time-dependent growth responses. Results demonstrate that Pinus sylvestris growth is positively correlated with winter temperatures (January–March), while precipitation shows no significant effect. Drought years (e.g., 1907, 1921, 1976, 2003, 2019) caused notable reductions in ring width, but recovery occurred in subsequent years, indicating high adaptive potential. The findings highlight that moderate winters stimulate growth by reducing soil frost depth and enhancing photosynthetic activity, whereas prolonged summer droughts remain a limiting factor. Overall, Pinus sylvestris exhibits relative resilience compared to other conifers (e.g., Picea orientalis), positioning it as a potentially sustainable species under projected climate scenarios. These results provide a scientific basis for forest management strategies, biodiversity conservation, and adaptation planning in Azerbaijan’s mountainous ecosystems.

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Cite This Study

Sattar et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fed17eb9154b0b82878e80https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20067773
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