Avoiding a Central Asian Water War: Challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Water is a precious commodity in Central Asia—perhaps the most precious—as the climate warms and severe droughts are ever-present in this part of the world. The stage for conflict seems set between Iran and Afghanistan as historical tensions and current climate realities converge in one of the driest parts of the world. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Afghanistan) is currently experiencing widespread food insecurity. Twenty million Afghans do not have sufficient food supplies (a conservative estimate) and six million are (according to the UN) thought to be at risk of famine. Poor water governance, incapacity to respond to climate events, and increasing populations in Central Asia demanding ever more water are exacerbating tensions. But natural resources can also be an impetus for peacebuilding, especially because neither Iran nor Afghanistan can afford a wide-spread conflict. This article will explore the water-based issues between the two nations, the relative successes and failures of the Afghan-Iranian Helmand River Water Treaty (Helmand Treaty), and the challenges to maintaining peace in the region. Afghanistan’s right to develop has been stymied by more than four decades of near-continuous armed conflict. But its hydropower development must be tempered by Iran’s right not to be harmed by Afghanistan’s development of water infrastructure. Tensions are high. “Water diplomacy” and other peacebuilding measures are key to avoiding further armed conflict.