Predicting Mortality and Healthcare Utilization with a Single Question

April 26, 2005Health Services ResearchOpen Access

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Key Points

To compare the ability of a single-item general self-rated health question versus multi-item survey instruments to predict mortality, hospitalizations, and healthcare utilization.
Analyzed prospective cohort data from 21,732 veteran patients participating in the Veterans Affairs Ambulatory Care Quality Improvement Project (ACQUIP) randomized controlled trial.
Assessed predictors including the single-item general self-rated health (GSRH) question, the SF-36 physical component score (PCS), the SF-36 mental component score (MCS), and the Seattle index of comorbidity (SIC).
Fitted age-adjusted logistic regression models and compared discriminatory performance using receiver operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC).
The single-item GSRH demonstrated predictive accuracy comparable to PCS and SIC for mortality (AUC: 0.74, 0.73, and 0.73), hospitalization (AUC: 0.63, 0.64, and 0.60), and high outpatient utilization (AUC: 0.61, 0.61, and 0.60).
The MCS showed significantly lower discriminatory ability for mortality and hospitalization compared to all other predictors (p < 0.001).

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Demonstrates that a single self-rated health question predicts mortality in veterans, indicating short tools match complex surveys.

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DeSalvo et al. (2005) studied this question.

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