Time Series Forecasting Model of Tetfund Allocation to Public Tertiary Institutions in Nigeria (2010–2023)

This study examined the trend, behaviour, and forecasting of TETFund allocation to universities, polytechnics, and colleges of education in Nigeria using a quantitative time series approach based on ARIMA modeling. The findings revealed that allocations across all categories exhibit a consistent upward trend and are stationary in levels around a deterministic trend which indicates that they are trend-stationary processes. Model estimation showed that the autoregressive and moving average components are statistically insignificant, leading to the adoption of a parsimonious ARIMA (0,0,0) model with a deterministic trend for all categories. Diagnostic tests, including checks for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, confirmed that the models are statistically adequate, with residuals behaving as white noise and exhibiting constant variance. Forecast results projected a steady increase in TETFund allocations up to 2036, following a smooth linear trajectory; however, these projections are purely trend-driven and do not capture potential structural breaks or external shocks. Overall, the study concludes that TETFund disbursement is largely policy-driven and influenced by fiscal and macroeconomic conditions rather than historical allocation patterns, underscoring the importance of stable fiscal policy, effective planning, and adaptive funding strategies in sustaining tertiary education development in Nigeria.