The People of Earth v. Their Governments

Website: https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/humanity-v-government.html Abstract: Existing literatures count deaths from government failure one silo at a time. Historians count war deaths. Health economists count efficacy-lag deaths. Global health researchers count disease deaths. No prior paper aggregates them. This paper does, while separating historical deaths from forward-looking settlement exposure. We charge the governments of Earth with three categories of negligent homicide and fiduciary failure: (1) Direct killing through war, conflict, and democide (310 million deaths since 1900); (2) Regulatory delay of safe and effective treatments under the 8.2 years (95% CI: 4.85 years-11.5 years) efficacy lag mandated since 1962 (102 million deaths in existing-drug delay alone); and (3) Misallocation of resources away from disease treatment. Count Three has two ledgers: a historical medical opportunity cost from the 1900 war-money-to-trials counterfactual, and a forward-looking treaty remedy projected to prevent 10.7 billion avoidable deaths if adopted now. The slice of military spending above a 1900 real-spending freeze alone runs to $135 trillion (95% CI: $132 trillion-$136 trillion), equal to 29,937 years of current government clinical-trial budgets. Under the primary lost-profits damages theory the corporate-liability exposure is roughly $25.2 million (95% CI: $8.28 million-$71.6 million) per representative full-life cohort, or $10.6 million (95% CI: $3.5 million-$30.3 million) per person as the NPV of the perpetual annual flow at 3%. Per dollar spent, the defendants killed 3,068 (95% CI: 2,878-3,125) times more people through Type II regulatory errors than they prevented through Type I. The defendants had the money. They spent it elsewhere. We propose a 1% reallocation of military expenditure as the only remedy commensurate with the offense. Summary: An indictment for negligent mass homicide separating historical body counts from forward-looking treaty-settlement exposure, with a 1% military reallocation as the only remedy commensurate with the offense.