COVID-19 as a game-changer? The impact of the pandemic on urban trajectories

its sudden shock to long-term urban trajectories, understood as a reversal of the pre-pandemic population development trend, across European cities in the early 2020s. It reveals that during the first year of COVID-19, population growth in European cities significantly slowed down to -0.3 % per annum, with 28 % of all European cities having experienced a U-turn from population growth to loss. Out-migration was the main driver of such rapid urban shrinkage, while excess mortality associated with COVID-19 has also contributed to population loss in several European city-regions; some, especially, smaller cities suffered from a significant drop in birth rates. Based on the factorial, hierarchical, and temporal dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis, the paper provides a plausible forecast about the future of Europe's post-coronavirus city.