Prediction of thrombosis in polycythemia vera: Development and validation of a multiple factor-based prognostic score system

Background: Thrombosis is an important cause of death in patients with polycythemia vera (PV). The conventional stratification of thrombosis may ignore some potential risk factors. Objectives: This study aimed to develop and validate a multiple factor-based prediction model of thrombosis for the 2016 World Health Organization-dened PV. Methods: Clinical and next-generation sequencing data from 2 cohorts of patients with PV were analyzed. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted for the identification of thrombotic risk factors and model development. Results: < .001). The MFPS-PV outperformed the conventional model in discrimination power (C-statistic: 0.87 [95% CI 0.83-0.91] vs 0.80 [95% CI 0.74-0.86]). The MFPS-PV was well calibrated and remained consistent during external validation. Conclusion: The MFPS-PV, integrating genetic and clinical characteristics for the first time, shows excellent accuracy and utility for thrombosis prediction in WHO-defined PV.