Deep-Learning Model for Influenza Prediction From Multisource Heterogeneous Data in a Megacity: Model Development and Evaluation

BACKGROUND: In megacities, there is an urgent need to establish more sensitive forecasting and early warning methods for acute respiratory infectious diseases. Existing prediction and early warning models for influenza and other acute respiratory infectious diseases have limitations and therefore there is room for improvement. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore a new and better-performing deep-learning model to predict influenza trends from multisource heterogeneous data in a megacity. METHODS: value, explained variance scores, mean absolute error, and mean square error were used to evaluate the quality of the models. RESULTS: reaching 0.70, mean absolute error of 0.02, and mean squared error of 0.02. Comparisons with random forest, extreme gradient boosting, LSTM, and gated current unit models showed that the MAL model had the best prediction effect. CONCLUSIONS: The newly established MAL model outperformed existing models. Natural factors and search engine query data were more helpful in forecasting ILI patterns in megacities. With more timely and effective prediction of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases and the epidemic intensity, early and better preparedness can be achieved to reduce the health damage to the population.