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February 25, 2025PLoS ONE29 citationsOpen Access

Machine learning for predicting antimicrobial resistance in critical and high-priority pathogens: A systematic review considering antimicrobial susceptibility tests in real-world healthcare settings

CACarlos M. ArdilaDGDaniel González‐ArroyaveSTSergio Tobón

Key Points

  • To evaluate the performance and utility of machine learning models for predicting antimicrobial resistance in critical and high-priority pathogens using real-world antimicrobial susceptibility data.
  • Searched PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, and SCIELO from database inception to November 2024.
  • Identified and synthesized findings across 21 observational cohort studies comprising 688,107 patients and 1,710,867 antimicrobial susceptibility tests.
  • Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT), Random Forest, and XGBoost emerged as the best-performing machine learning architectures for resistance prediction.
  • GBDT models achieved a mean AuROC of 0.80 (range 0.77–0.90) compared to 0.68 (range 0.50–0.83) for standard logistic regression.
  • Random Forest models demonstrated a mean AuROC of 0.75 (range 0.58–0.98) compared to 0.71 (range 0.61–0.83) for logistic regression.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a worldwide health threat; quick and accurate identification of AMR enhances patient outcomes and reduces inappropriate antibiotic usage. The objective of this systematic review is to evaluate the efficacy of machine learning (ML) approaches in predicting AMR in critical and high-priority pathogens (CHPP), considering antimicrobial susceptibility tests in real-world healthcare settings. METHODS: The search methodology encompassed the examination of several databases, such as PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, and SCIELO. An extensive electronic database search was conducted from the inception of these databases until November 2024. RESULTS: After completing the final step of the eligibility assessment, the systematic review ultimately included 21 papers. All included studies were cohort observational studies assessing 688,107 patients and 1,710,867 antimicrobial susceptibility tests. GBDT, Random Forest, and XGBoost were the top-performing ML models for predicting antibiotic resistance in CHPP infections. GBDT exhibited the highest AuROC values compared to Logistic Regression (LR), with a mean value of 0.80 (range 0.77-0.90) and 0.68 (range 0.50-0.83), respectively. Similarly, Random Forest generally showed better AuROC values compared to LR (mean value 0.75, range 0.58-0.98 versus mean value 0.71, range 0.61-0.83). However, some predictors selected by these algorithms align with those suggested by LR. CONCLUSIONS: ML displays potential as a technology for predicting AMR, incorporating antimicrobial susceptibility tests in CHPP in real-world healthcare settings. However, limitations such as retrospective methodology for model development, nonstandard data processing, and lack of validation in randomized controlled trials must be considered before applying these models in clinical practice.

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Cite This Study

Ardila et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a018cd00cec8eebbd5c9beahttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0319460
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