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China's One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative should increase the efficiency of resource movements and trade, integrate previously marginalized regions and economies, and strengthen China's economic and strategic position. The article evaluates the likely economic impact on trade and growth of China's OBOR initiative. It examines approaches based on historical experience, comparable program, and simulations. It finds that its benefits will not be shared equally, and unsurprisingly, China is the primary beneficiary. The complexity, embryonic stage, and significant challenges surrounding the initiative mean that any evaluation is highly tentative.
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Peter Enderwick (2018) studied this question.
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