Trends in Mortality Associated With Ischemic Heart Disease and Screenable Cancers in the United States, 1999 to 2024

Jamal S. Rana; Reed Mszar; Eugenia Gianos; Matthew J. Budoff; Khurram Nasir; Mushood Ahmed

doi:10.1016/j.jacadv.2025.102576

January 19, 2026JACC AdvancesOpen Access

Trends in Mortality Associated With Ischemic Heart Disease and Screenable Cancers in the United States, 1999 to 2024

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Share

Figures

Why the study?

How do contemporary mortality trends for ischemic heart disease compare to mortality trends for the leading screenable cancers in the United States?

Key Points

To examine contemporary trends in ischemic heart disease mortality relative to the most prevalent screenable cancers in the United States from 1999 to 2024.
Extracted death records from the National Vital Statistics System via CDC WONDER across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for adults ≥25 years of age from 1999 to 2024.
Calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 for ischemic heart disease, lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers across two distinct periods: 1999–2011 and 2012–2024.
Utilized joinpoint regression modeling to evaluate average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals across sex-stratified cohorts.
From 1999 to 2011, IHD mortality fell sharply among men (AAPC: −4.44%, 95% CI: −4.63% to −4.21%) and women (AAPC: −5.26%, 95% CI: −5.84% to −4.89%), but declines decelerated between 2012 and 2024 to −1.95% (95% CI: −2.24% to −1.73%) in men and −2.83% (95% CI: −3.18% to −2.60%) in women.
Between 2012 and 2024, lung cancer mortality reductions accelerated to an AAPC of −4.37% (95% CI: −4.68% to −4.15%) in men and −2.96% (95% CI: −3.15% to −2.78%) in women.
In 2024, the AAMR for IHD remained more than 3-fold higher than lung cancer among men and nearly 2.2-times higher than lung cancer among women.

Structured PICO

How do contemporary mortality trends for ischemic heart disease compare to mortality trends for the leading screenable cancers in the United States?

P

Population

Adults ≥25 years of age in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia between 1999 and 2024.

O

Outcome

Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 for ischemic heart disease and leading screenable cancers (lung, breast, prostate, colorectal)hard clinical

Limitations

Misclassification bias due to the use of International Classification of Diseases codes and death certificates.
Database contains limited information on comorbidities, clinical laboratory data, or social determinants of health.
Specific screening strategies used to assess patients were not available.
Unable to quantify the precise impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the observed trends.

Implication

The recent plateauing in the decline of ischemic heart disease mortality compared to screenable cancers highlights a critical gap and underscores the potential need for more systematic cardiovascular screening strategies, such as coronary artery calcium scanning.

Abstract

No abstract yet. The journal hasn't published one we can show.

Discussion

No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.

Cite This Study

Rana et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a02590645880192ae423d48 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacadv.2025.102576

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Share

Trends in Mortality Associated With Ischemic Heart Disease and Screenable Cancers in the United States, 1999 to 2024

Figures

Key Points

Structured PICO

Limitations

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Trends in Mortality Associated With Ischemic Heart Disease and Screenable Cancers in the United States, 1999 to 2024

Figures

Key Points

Structured PICO

Limitations

Implication

Abstract

Discussion

Cite This Study

Keep reading

Keep reading