Efficient Estimation of Component Interactions for Cascading Failure Analysis by EM Algorithm

Due to the lack of information about the causes of outages, the estimation of the interactions between component failures that capture the general outage propagation patterns is a typical parameter estimation problem with incomplete data. In this paper, we estimate these interactions by the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. The proposed method is validated with simulated cascading failure data from the AC OPA model on the IEEE 118-bus system. The EM algorithm can accurately estimate the interactions and identify the key links and key components using only a small number of the original cascades from a detailed cascading blackout model, which is critical for online cascading failure analysis and decision making. Compared with AC OPA simulation, the highly probabilistic interaction model simulation based on the proposed interaction estimation method can achieve a speed-up of 100.61.