Hurricane Forecasting: The State of the Art

In this article, we summarize current forecasting practice, the performance of the forecasting enterprise, and the impacts of tropical cyclones from a meteorological perspective. In the past, a forecast was considered successful if it predicted the hurricane’s position and intensity 12–72h into the future. By the 1990s, forecast users came to expect more specific details such as spatial distributions of rainfall, winds, flooding, and high seas. In the early 21st century, forecasters extended their time horizons to 120h. Meteorologists have maintained, homogeneous statistics on forecast accuracy for more than 50 years. These verification statistics are reliable metrics of meteorological performance. In terms of outcomes, forecasting in the late 20th century prevented 66–90% of the hurricane-related deaths in the United States that would have resulted from techniques used in the 1950s, but it is difficult to demonstrate an effect on property damage. The economic and human consequences of the response to forecasts and warnings are also poorly known. A final key concern is how to frame forecasts to address users’ needs and to elicit optimum responses.