Predicted Northward Expansion of the Geographic Range of the Tick Vector Amblyomma americanum in North America under Future Climate Conditions

Recently, populations of this tick have been reported to be present close to the Canadian border in Michigan and New York states, but established populations are not known in Canada. Previous research suggests that changing temperature patterns with climate change may influence tick life cycles and permit northward range expansion of ticks in the northern hemisphere. OBJECTIVES: into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades. METHODS: populations at the northern edge of the tick's range. RESULTS: by the year 2100) occurring under the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Predicted northward range expansion was reduced by approximately half under the reduced GHG emissions of RCP4.5. DISCUSSION: into northern U.S. states and southern Canada in the coming decades, and conclude that surveillance for this tick, and the diseases it transmits, would be prudent. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5668.