Mathematical model demonstrates sensitivity analysis impacts on groundwater dynamics in aquifers, suggesting management improvements.
Understanding the coupled dynamics of groundwater flow and salinity transport is essential for the sustainable management of aquifer systems, particularly in irrigated and semi-arid regions where evaporation, recharge variability, and groundwater abstraction strongly influence hydrogeological regimes. In multilayer porous media, groundwater-level fluctuations and salt migration processes are closely interconnected, since hydraulic gradients control solute transport while salinity variations may affect flow behaviour through density-related mechanisms. In this study, a nonlinear mathematical model is developed to describe groundwater-level evolution and salt transport within a two-layer porous medium consisting of a phreatic layer and an underlying confined aquifer. The model accounts for filtration processes, interlayer hydraulic exchange, density-dependent effects, and external forcing factors including surface recharge, evaporation, and pumping. For numerical implementation, the governing equations are discretized using a finite-difference scheme with central spatial approximations and an implicit Crank–Nicolson-type temporal formulation. A hybrid second-order time approximation is introduced for the main-layer equation to improve numerical smoothness and stability. The resulting tridiagonal algebraic systems are solved using the Thomas algorithm within an iterative quasi-linearization framework, ensuring both computational efficiency and numerical robustness. Simulation results reveal a clear difference in the dynamical behaviour of the two layers. The phreatic aquifer exhibits rapid and high-amplitude responses to external forcing, whereas the confined aquifer demonstrates slower and smoother hydraulic and geochemical adjustments. Sensitivity analysis further identifies the filtration coefficient, transmissivity, porosity, density-related parameters, surface flux, and pumping intensity as the dominant factors governing groundwater dynamics and salinity redistribution. The proposed modelling framework provides a reliable tool for analysing coupled groundwater–salinity processes and offers a scientifically grounded basis for groundwater monitoring, salinization risk assessment, and sustainable aquifer management.
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Khujamatov et al. (2026) studied this question.
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