Generalizing over lexicons to predict consonant mastery

When they first begin to talk, children show characteristic consonant errors, which are often described in terms that recall Neogrammarian sound change. For example, a Japanese child's production of the word kimono might be transcribed with an initial postalveolar affricate, as in typical velar-softening sound changes. Broad-stroke reviews of errors list striking commonalities across children acquiring different languages, whereas quantitative studies reveal enormous variability across children, some of which seems related to differences in consonant frequencies across different lexicons. This paper asks whether the appearance of commonalities across children acquiring different languages might be reconciled with the observed variability by referring to the ways in which sound change might affect frequencies in the lexicon. Correlational analyses were used to assess relationships between consonant accuracy in a database of recordings of toddlers acquiring Cantonese, English, Greek, or Japanese and two measures of consonant frequency: one specific to the lexicon being acquired, the other an average frequency calculated for the other three languages. Results showed generally positive trends, although the strength of the trends differed across measures and across languages. Many outliers in plots depicting the relationships suggested historical contingencies that have conspired to make for unexpected paths, much as in biological evolution."The history of life is not necessarily progressive; it is certainly not predictable. The earth's creatures have evolved through a series of contingent and fortuitous events." (Gould, 1989).