Economic matters: the 2024 European Parliament elections

Using European Election Study (EES) surveys (2004 to 2024) from the six founding members (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands) of the European Union, we examine how economic perceptions affect vote choice in the European Parliament (EP) elections. Beginning with the second-order election thesis, i.e., voter behavior in EP elections is influenced by national politics, we investigate alternative economic voting hypotheses, culminating with a focus on the 2024 contests. We find the extant economic vote has remained stable, in the face of shocks such as the Great Recession or Brexit. Further, the economic perception effects appear competitive with the effects of left-right ideology and party identification. Economic voting remains a pivot for vote choice in EP elections, even in the face of emergent supra-national challenges, and shows no signs of diminishing as a result of the 2024 EP contests.