Evaluation of the Impact of Marine fishery Wastes on Ecological Aquaculture based on DPSIR and Barrier degree Analysis

Marine ecological aquaculture serves as a vital industry for ensuring food security and driving blue economy development. However, marine fishery waste discharge poses significant threats to its sustainable development. To scientifically assess this impact, this study takes Sanmen Bay as the study area, constructing a multi-level evaluation index system based on the driving forces-pressures-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model and introducing a barrier degree model to quantify key constraints. Dynamic trend prediction employs nonlinear fitting. The study’s novelty lies in optimizing quantitative accuracy by integrating subjective (AHP) and objective (entropy) weights, solving the problem that traditional methods insufficiently characterize land-sea collaborative pollution interactions and marine fishery waste discharge mechanisms. By collecting water quality parameters and socio-economic data from 2014 to 2024, this study analyzed impacts of marine fishery waste (feed residue, feces, abandoned fishing gear, etc.) on ecological aquaculture, identified main obstacle factors and predicted future trends. Results showed the comprehensive evaluation index rose to 0.453 (2014-2024), remaining in the early warning zone. Heavy metal pollution, marine debris density, and sewage outfall distribution are key barriers causing nitrogen/phosphorus excess, eutrophication, and sediment pollution. Projections indicate these stressors will persist with fluctuating pressure and status indices until 2030. The evaluation system provides a multidimensional and quantifiable assessment tool for marine fisheries ecological aquaculture, proposing three countermeasures: intelligent bait reduction, sedimentation tank + artificial wetland treatment, and waste resource utilization, providing scientific decision-making basis for ecological management in semi-enclosed bays.