Simulation Analysis of Hydrodynamic and Water Environmental Thresholds for Ecological Restoration of Shallow Lakes

Shallow lakes in the Yangtze River Delta are characterized by fragile ecosystems, strong sediment–water interactions, and poor resistance to pollution shocks; they are prone to shift from macrophyte-dominated clear-water states to phytoplankton-dominated turbid states under intensive human disturbance. To improve the efficacy of aquatic ecological restoration, this study takes a typical shallow urban lake—Kuilei Lake in Kunshan—as the research object, and establishes a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model to simulate the temporal and spatial variations in flow fields, flow circulations, and water quality indicators (TP, NH3-N, CODMn) throughout the year. The results are as follows: (1) The hydrodynamic regime of Kuilei Lake is dominated by wind-driven currents, with seasonal flow circulations regulating pollutant migration and the suitability for submerged macrophyte growth; (2) Intense circulations in summer (July–September) enhance sediment resuspension and endogenous nutrient release, which are unfavorable for submerged plant colonization; (3) April–June is the optimal window for ecological restoration, with a mean flow velocity of 2.0–2.5 cm/s, TP ≤ 0.06 mg/L, NH3-N ≤ 0.20 mg/L, CODMn ≤ 3.0 mg/L, and water temperature of 15–25 °C, providing favorable thresholds for submerged macrophyte recovery. This study reveals the coupled hydrodynamic–water environmental thresholds for shallow lake restoration, and offers a scientific basis for flow field regulation and ecological reconstruction of shallow lakes in the Yangtze River Delta.