Prospective study observes market activation in response to neutrino alerts, suggesting new economic insights.
This study presents a pre-registered prospective observational study of IceCube Neutrino Observatory GOLD-class alerts (signalness ≥ 0.5) and multi-asset market activation. Building on a retrospective finding (p=0.0051, Mann-Whitney U; DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20093286), this version introduces: (1) an expanded primary endpoint — activation in ≥3 of 6 pre-specified asset categories within 72 hours; (2) a prospective verification window pre-registered for May 25–30, 2026 (CSS Event Window; KOKU silence: ~166 days); (3) the Wave-Based Social Transmission Hypothesis as a falsifiable mechanistic framework. All theoretical frameworks are published under CC BY 4.0. This draft is timestamped prior to the CSS Window. Prospective results will be incorporated in the final version. ORCID: 0009-0006-2290-6593. Pre-registration DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20035265.
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Yoshimitsu Katayama (2026) studied this question.
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