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This analysis compares the difference between the Energy Performance Certificate (EPC)-modelled and smart-meter measured annual energy use on a like-for-like basis in 1,374 gas-heated British households from the Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) Observatory. EPCs and metered energy use were converted to primary energy use intensity (PEUI) to provide a comparison of the same quantity for the first time. We show that EPCs predict significantly more energy use than metered in homes in Great Britain. EPC bands A and B show no statistically significant difference, but all other bands show a significant gap which increases as EPC rating worsens. The PEUI gap widens from −26 kWh/yr/m2 (−8%) for band C to −276 kWh/y/m2 (−48%) for bands F and G. Unlike previous research, we show that the difference persists in homes matching the EPC-model assumptions regarding occupancy, thermostat set-point and whole-home heating; suggesting that occupant behaviour is unlikely to fully explain the discrepancy. EPCs are a core tool in the residential energy sector, and the gap between EPC-modelled and metered energy use could have a significant impact on policy, research, and industry. Future research should investigate disaggregated components of energy use, the underlying thermal model, and assumptions regarding building characteristics.
Few et al. (Wed,) studied this question.