Impact characteristics of population aging on carbon emissions from building operations in typical countries

Building operation is a major contributor to global carbon emissions. Population aging, as a long-term and hardly reversible demographic trend, reshapes both energy demand and consumption patterns, thereby influencing carbon emissions from building operations (CEBO). Unlike production-based emissions, CEBO is closely tied to everyday consumption behaviors, which vary significantly with changes in the age structure. This makes it essential to examine the relationship between aging and CEBO from a consumption perspective. Using panel data from 81 countries between 1970 and 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model and a panel threshold regression model to examine how population aging affects CEBO. The results indicate that population aging is generally associated with higher CEBO, although the magnitude and direction of this effect vary across income groups and regions. A threshold effect is identified, showing that the positive association between aging and CEBO becomes stronger when the aging rate is below the threshold value. In addition, higher urbanization, greater trade openness, and lower population density appear to weaken the impact of population aging on CEBO. Consumption levels serve as a key mediating mechanism through which population aging influences CEBO. These findings provide empirical evidence to inform differentiated policy strategies for countries at various stages of population aging.