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May 15, 2026Review of Economic Perspectives0 citationsOpen Access

When Convergence is Crisis-Driven:Evidence From Unemployment Dynamics Across Czech Districts

JBJan Belardi

Key Points

  • This research investigates whether district-level unemployment rates in the Czech Republic converged or diverged over time, particularly during crises.
  • Applied absolute β-convergence framework with spatial lag specification using spatial econometric techniques.
  • Analyzed district-level unemployment data from 2005 to 2024, focusing on several sub-periods.
  • Examined the impacts of the 2008–2013 economic downturn on employment dynamics across districts.
  • During the 2008–2013 downturn, evidence of crisis-driven β-convergence was observed (R² = 0.734).
  • Districts with initially low unemployment saw the largest increases, while areas with high unemployment had the smallest growth.
  • In periods of economic expansion, unemployment dynamics showed limited alignment with standard β-convergence mechanisms.

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article examines the evolution of persistent regional unemployment disparities in the Czech Republic and asks whether district-level unemployment rates converged or diverged between 2005 and 2024. Understanding these dynamics matters for social cohesion, economic resilience, and the design of effective employment policies. The analysis applies an absolute β -convergence framework, subsequently extended to a spatial lag specification using spatial econometric techniques. District-level unemployment data are analysed for the full period and for several sub-periods. The strongest evidence is found during the 2008–2013 downturn: both the standard and spatial models indicate crisis-driven β -convergence, with R 2 = 0.734. Districts that entered the crisis with initially low unemployment experienced the largest relative increases, while structurally affected districts with initially high unemployment recorded the lowest relative growth, resulting in a temporary compression of inter-district disparities. By contrast, in expansionary periods the models exhibit limited explanatory power, suggesting that unemployment dynamics are less aligned with a standard β -convergence mechanism in the absence of major macroeconomic shocks. The results underline the importance of strengthening labour-market resilience through local economic diversification, workforce reskilling, and flexibility-enhancing measures. Persistent structural disparities further point to the need for regionally differentiated policies aimed at mitigating the asymmetric regional impacts of economy-wide shocks and promoting balanced regional development.

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Cite This Study

Jan Belardi (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a06b928e7dec685947abb28https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2025-0006
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