Multilateral Export Control Regimes and Aggregate Exports

Export controls have become a central instrument of international economic policy, governing trade in dual-use and sensitive technologies among allies and rivals alike. Despite their prominence, little is known about how multilateral export control regimes affect trade between participating countries. Using long-run gravity estimates for 1965–2010, we show sizable increases in bilateral trade among joint members in multilateral export control regimes relative to nonmembers. The effects are heterogeneous across regimes and comparable in magnitude to preferential trade agreements. Our findings highlight export controls as institutions of regulatory coordination that shape aggregate trade patterns in modern global production networks.