Key result
Prognostic models require validation in external samples to establish their clinical value and utility.
Design
Review
Clinicians should not rely on unvalidated prognostic models; leaves open optimal strategies for external validation across populations.
Prognostic models are of little clinical value unless they are shown to work in other samples. Douglas Altman and colleagues describe how to validate models and discuss some of the problems
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Altman et al. (2009) studied this question. Prognostic models require validation in external samples to establish their clinical value and utility.
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