Key result
Elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) was independently associated with a greater risk of incident atrial fibrillation, with an adjusted HR of 1.38.
Why the study?
The metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) indicates metabolic health, but its association with atrial fibrillation risk was unclear.
Does an elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) increase the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the general adult population?
Cohort (n=400,668)
Yes
Does an elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) increase the risk of incident atrial fibrillation in the general adult population?
Elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) is independently associated with an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation, highlighting its potential as a clinical marker for early AF risk stratification.
BACKGROUND: The metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF), which integrates measures of visceral adiposity, insulin resistance, and demographic variables, serves as a composite indicator of metabolic health. However, the association between METS-VF and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the prospective association between METS-VF and incident AF within the UK Biobank cohort. METHODS: A total of 400,668 participants from the UK Biobank were included in the analysis. Flexible parametric survival models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between METS-VF and AF incidence. Additional subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the consistency of the results. RESULTS: Over a cumulative follow-up of 62,789,030 person-months, 28,764 individuals were diagnosed with AF. In multivariable-adjusted models, elevated METS-VF levels were significantly associated with a heightened risk of AF, with an adjusted HR of 1.38 (95% CI, 1.34-1.42). When stratified by METS-VF quartiles, the adjusted HRs for the second, third, and fourth quartiles were 1.08 (95% CI, 1.03-1.12), 1.14 (95% CI, 1.09-1.19), and 1.44 (95% CI, 1.37-1.50), respectively (P for trend < 0.001). The association remained stable across multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated METS-VF is independently linked to a greater risk of incident AF. These findings underscore the potential utility of METS-VF as a clinical marker for early identification of individuals at elevated AF risk, supporting its role in targeted prevention and personalized cardiovascular risk management. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.
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Duan et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in Atrial fibrillation (n=400,668). Elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) vs. Lower METS-VF levels was evaluated on Incident atrial fibrillation (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.34-1.42, p=<0.001). Elevated metabolic score for visceral fat (METS-VF) was independently associated with a greater risk of incident atrial fibrillation, with an adjusted HR of 1.38.
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