Using Machine Learning to Predict Regulatory Fines: Enhancing Deterrence in White-Collar Financial Crime Enforcement

This study applies machine learning (ML) techniques to predict fines imposed by the Mutual Fund Dealers Association of Canada on investment advisors who violate securities laws. Anchored in deterrence theory, the research evaluates whether fine allocation reflects proportionality, consistency, and severity. Using probabilistic and ML models with feature selection and extraction methods like PCA and RFE, the study identifies key predictors of fines. Results show that investigation costs and commissions are consistent predictors, while more serious offenses like quasi-criminal violations have limited influence. These findings raise concerns about regulatory leniency and the adequacy of current fine structures securities violation enforcement. The results from this study offers insights for a data-driven framework to improve fairness and effectiveness in regulatory enforcement.