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This study explores the connection between key meteorological variables and malaria incidence across Africa, addressing a critical gap in understanding how climate patterns influence disease persistence. Employing Climatic Research Unit gridded time series (CRUTS) climate data (1981-2024), we established the K Malaria Index (KMI), an integrated quantity of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum transmission based on a temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and rainfall thresholds for mosquito breeding. Spatial analysis showed that regions with mean temperatures >18°C and monthly rainfall ≥80 mm, predominantly in Central, West, and parts of East Africa, have the highest and most persistent transmission suitability. A significant long-term warming trend (+0. 14°C decade -1) links with a shortening of the EIP, enhancing transmission potential. Time-series validation shows that the KMI and its component variables have significant positive correlations with past malaria mortality rates, confirming its advantage as a predictive tool. The findings highlight the necessity of incorporating climate forecasts into public health planning to build effective and robust malaria control strategies under global warming.
Oo et al. (2026) studied this question.