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May 17, 2026Eurasian Journal of Emergency Medicine0 citationsOpen Access

Predicting Mortality in Gastrointestinal Bleeding: Serum Copeptin Levels or Age, Systolic Blood Pressure and Shock Index-A Cross-Sectional Study

EAEmrah AkınAOAlten OskayÖEÖzgen Kılıç Erkek

Key Points

  • To evaluate the association of serum copeptin levels and vital signs with mortality and hospitalization in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding.
  • Prospective, cross-sectional, observational study conducted in an emergency department from June 2021 to May 2022
  • Assessment of serum copeptin levels and vital signs in patients diagnosed with GI bleeding
  • Analysis of patient outcomes including hospitalization duration and 30-day mortality
  • 30-day mortality was observed in 15% of patients, with no significant difference in copeptin levels between deceased and surviving patients.
  • Shock index above 0.70 and age over 75 were associated with increased mortality (OR=6.824, p=0.017).
  • Lower systolic blood pressure at admission correlated with increased mortality (OR=0.952, p=0.003).

Abstract

Aim: Vital signs, blood parameters, and some blood biomarkers in patients with gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding vary depending on the severity of the bleeding.The aim of this study is to investigate the association of vital signs and copeptin levels with transfusion requirements, and patient prognosis, including hospitalization duration and 30-day mortality.Materials and Methods: Prospective, cross-sectional, observational study, conducted in the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary care university hospital, between June 2021 and May 2022.Admission serum copeptin levels and vital parameters of patients with a diagnosis of GI bleeding were noted and evaluated in terms of outcome measures. Results:The study included 118 patients, 75 (63.6%) of whom were male.The median age was 72 years (interquartile range: 58-83).A total of 18 (15%) patients died within 30 days.Serum copeptin levels did not differ between deceased patients and survivors.Logistic regression analysis showed that a shock index above 0.70 and patients aged 75 years and older together p=0.017,odds ratio (OR)=6.824;95% confidence interval (CI): (1.419-32.811)lead to an increase in 30-day mortality.Lower systolic blood pressure at the admission to the ED was associated with increased 30-day mortality p=0.003,OR=0.952; 95% CI: (0.922-0.983). Conclusion:Although serum copeptin levels failed to predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted to the ED due to GI bleeding, our models demonstrated that age over 75 years, lower systolic blood pressure, and the shock index, were superior predictors of mortality.

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Cite This Study

Akın et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a095a427880e6d24efe05b2https://doi.org/10.4274/eajem.galenos.2026.12058
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