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May 1, 2026Forensic Science International GeneticsOpen Access

MatchY in Practice: Factors Influencing Pedigree-Based Y-STR Match Probabilities

Dion Zandstra Amke Caliebe Mohsen Ghanbari M Krawczak Manfred Kayser Arwin Ralf

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Key Points

This research aims to identify factors that influence Y-STR match probabilities when calculated with a pedigreed approach.
Introduced a mathematical framework for computing Y-STR match probabilities based on male pedigrees.
Developed MatchY software to calculate match probabilities considering mutation rates.
Explored marker and pedigree-based factors that affect Y-STR match outcome.
Factors including marker characteristics and pedigree complexity significantly impact match probability outcomes.
MatchY's trace mode provides insights for forensic intelligence applications apart from evidential computations.

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Implication

Uncovers factors affecting Y-STR match probabilities in forensic casework, highlighting their importance for accurate assessments.

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Cite This Study

Zandstra et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a095bba7880e6d24efe1923 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fsigen.2026.103522

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