Burden of head and neck cancers in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023: Observation, comparison, and forecast from the global burden of disease study 2023

Background Head and neck cancer (HNC) poses a significant public health challenge worldwide, yet the long-term trends and heterogeneity of its burden within East Asia remain inadequately characterized. This study aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the HNC burden in five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2023 and project future trends. Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023, we analyzed the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of HNC in China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic (DPR) of Korea, and Mongolia. We employed a comprehensive analytical approach encompassing age-standardized rates, temporal trends, Joinpoint regression, risk factor attribution, age-period-cohort analysis, as well as decomposition and forecasting analyses. Results From 1990 to 2023, substantial heterogeneity was observed. China demonstrated significant declines in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR). Conversely, Japan experienced concerning increases in ASIR and ASMR. The Republic of Korea maintained a stable ASIR while achieving a marked ASMR reduction. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea showed increases in both ASIR and ASMR, while Mongolia reported declines in ASIR and ASMR. Age distribution shifted markedly towards older populations in China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea. Smoking remained the predominant risk factor across HNC subtypes. Forecasts to 2038 project a continued rise in ASIR for Japan and the DPR of Korea, and a high ASMR for the DPR of Korea. Conclusion The HNC burden in East Asia exhibits divergent national trajectories, with smoking remaining the predominant attributable risk factor. Further research is needed to elucidate underlying causes of these cross-country disparities.