The Careless Coupon Collector’s Problem

We initiate the study of the Careless Coupon Collector’s Problem (CCCP), a novel variation of the classical coupon collector, that we envision as a model for information systems such as web crawlers, dynamic caches, and fault-resilient networks. In CCCP, a collector attempts to gather n distinct coupon types by obtaining one coupon type uniformly at random in each discrete round, however the collector is careless: at the end of each round, each collected coupon type is independently lost with probability p. We analyze the number of rounds required to complete the collection as a function of n and p. In particular, we show that it transitions from Θ(n ln n) when p = o((ln n)/n²) up to Θ(((np)/(1-p))ⁿ) when p = ω(1/n) in multiple distinct phases. Interestingly, when p = c/n, the process remains in a metastable phase, where the fraction of collected coupon types is concentrated around 1/(1+c) with probability 1-o(1), for a time window of length eΘ(n). Finally, we give an algorithm that computes the expected completion time of CCCP in O(n²) time.