How digital economy and green and low carbon policies affect non-agricultural employment?—Evidence from China

Amid the parallel advancement of green transition and digitalization, the joint mechanisms by which digital economy development and green low-carbon policies promote non-agricultural employment (NAE) remain insufficiently examined. This study introduces a “configurational–marginal” mixed analytical framework, using panel data from Chinese counties (2014–2023). By combining fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), the analysis addresses a significant research gap by uncovering both the configuration paths and marginal effects of digital and green policy tools on NAE. Findings reveal that digital infrastructure and green policies generate both “bottleneck” and “amplification” effects. Internet penetration, e-commerce platform diffusion, agricultural IoT adoption, and digital platform engagement all contribute significantly to NAE growth. In contrast, green agricultural support and low-carbon technology policies show short-term negative impacts, reflecting transitional job displacement caused by ecological upgrading and technological substitution. Policy recommendations include integrating carbon trading mechanisms and fiscal subsidies into digital platforms to magnify employment multipliers. In areas with underdeveloped digital or green capacities, addressing foundational gaps should precede coordinated investments, supported by a “digital + green” vocational training fund to alleviate structural unemployment. These findings provide practical guidance for advancing inclusive and sustainable rural employment transitions.