Predictive Policing in the Context of Residential Burglary: An Empirical Illustration on the Basis of a Pilot Project in Baden-Württemberg, Germany

Predictive policing has become an important issue in recent times, and different applications have been implemented in different countries. With a remarkable increase in residential burglaries in Germany during the last years, several place-based predictive policing strategies have been applied for this type of offence. In the federal state of Baden-Württemberg, the “pilot project predictive policing” (P4) was started in October 2015. The project was designed to produce open-ended and unbiased results and therefore included an external scientific evaluation. The article describes how predictive policing was applied in the P4 pilot and summarizes the main findings of the evaluation study. As predictive policing is more than making predictions, the article sheds light on different aspects of a “prediction-led policing business process” (Perry et al., Predictive policing: the role of crime forecasting in law enforcement operations, Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, 2013). Despite some positive findings, the impact on crime remains unclear and the size of crime reducing effects appears to be moderate. Within the police force, the acceptance of predictive policing is a divisive issue. Future research is recommended.