Methodology for Managing the Effect of Uncertainty in Simulation-Based Design

... In this paper, an integrated methodology for propagating and mitigating the effect of uncertainties is proposed. Two approaches, namely, the extreme condition approach and the statistical approach, are developed to propagate the effect of uncertainties across a design system comprising interrelated subsystem analyses. Using the extreme condition approach, an interval of the output from a chain of simulations is obtained, while the statistical approach provides statistical estimates of the output. An uncertainty mitigation strategy based on the principles of robust design is proposed. The methodology is presented using an illustrative simulation chain and is verified using the case study of a six-link function-generator linkage design.