Mapping Mass Political Conflict and Civil Society

Mass political conflict is typically examined in terms of violence and in isolation from routine civil interactions. The authors argue that mass conflict is multidimensional and that violence should be treated as an outcome of conflict, as well as a form of action. They define three dimensions of conflict—contentiousness, coerciveness, and change goals—and indices of the civil society that are central to mapping global trends in mass conflict. A strategy for mapping mass conflict and civil interactions using the PANDA protocol to generate highly reliable event data is outlined, and these indices are used to trace two democratic transitions (in Poland and South Korea), a conflict crisis that was repressed (China), and a conflict escalation that flared into a civil war (the former Yugoslavia). Automation has major advantages over human coding in terms of transparency, integration with existing event data series, real-time availability, and long-term maintenance costs. It also opens new ways of thinking about event data and the assessment of reliability.