Testing Probation Outcomes in an Evidence-Based Practice Setting: Reduced Caseload Size and Intensive Supervision Effectiveness

Probation and parole professionals argue that supervision outcomes would improve if caseloads were reduced below commonly achieved standards. Criminal justice researchers are skeptical because random assignment and strong observation studies have failed to show that criminal recidivism falls with reductions in caseload sizes. One explanation is that caseload reduction by itself is insufficient; supervision must also be allotted and distributed to make the best use of supervision resources, a cornerstone of evidence-based practice (EBP). This study uses a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to test the null hypothesis that reduced caseload in an agency using EBP has no effect on criminal recidivism. Our conclusions are that reduced caseloads in this context probably reduce criminal recidivism and probably do not increase revocations for technical violations.