A genetic risk score significantly improved prediction of incident CHD beyond traditional risk factors (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29 in Blacks; HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14 in Whites).
Cohort
Does a genetic risk score plus traditional risk factors improve prediction of incident CHD compared to traditional risk factors alone in the ARIC cohort?
Incorporating a genetic risk score alongside traditional risk factors improves the prediction of incident coronary heart disease.
Effect estimate: HR 1.20 (Blacks), HR 1.10 (Whites) (95% CI 1.11-1.29 (Blacks), 1.06-1.14 (Whites))
p-value: p=<=0.02
Recent studies have evaluated whether incorporating nontraditional risk factors improves coronary heart disease (CHD) prediction models. This 1986-2001 US study aggregated the contribution of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms into a genetic risk score (GRS) and assessed whether the GRS plus traditional risk factors predict CHD better than traditional risk factors alone. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort was followed for a median of 13 years for CHD events (n = 1,452). Individuals were genotyped for 116 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CHD in multiple case-control studies. Single nucleotide polymorphisms nominally predicting incident CHD in the ARIC study were included in the GRS. The GRS was significantly associated with incident CHD in Blacks (hazard rate ratio = 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.11, 1.29) and Whites (hazard rate ratio = 1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.14) as well as in each tertile defined by the traditional cardiovascular risk score (p < or = 0.02). When receiver operating characteristic curves based on traditional risk factors were recalculated after the GRS was added, the increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was statistically significant for Blacks and suggestive of improved CHD prediction for Whites. This study demonstrates the concept of aggregating information from multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms into a risk score and indicates that it can improve prediction of incident CHD in the ARIC study.
Morrison et al. (Wed,) conducted a cohort in Coronary Heart Disease. Genetic risk score (GRS) plus traditional risk factors vs. Traditional risk factors alone was evaluated on Incident CHD events (HR 1.20 (Blacks), HR 1.10 (Whites), 95% CI 1.11-1.29 (Blacks), 1.06-1.14 (Whites), p=<=0.02). A genetic risk score significantly improved prediction of incident CHD beyond traditional risk factors (HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.11-1.29 in Blacks; HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14 in Whites).
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