Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so?

A series of studies was conducted to determine the viability of a scenario pro-cedure as a compliance technique. In four experiments, subjects who, through the use of a structured scenario, were led to imagine themselves experiencing certain events came to believe more strongly that the events would befall them. This promotive effect of the scenario procedure on probability or likelihood es-timates occurred for both positive events (e.g., winning a contest) and negative events (e.g., being arrested for a crime) and occurred in both laboratory and field contexts. Furthermore, and crucial to its relevance for compliance, the scenario procedure was shown to influence not bnly probability judgments but also behavior. Homeowners who imagined themselves utilizing a cable television service were subsequently more likely to subscribe to such a service when re-quested to do so weeks later. Finally, it was determined that the effect of struc-tured scenarios on compliance is not due to additional information provided by the scenario. Instead, an interpretation based on the availability heuristic is favored.