Circulating Biomarkers in Localized Anal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Across Treatment Timepoints: A Systematic Review

Background/Objectives: Locoregional anal squamous cell carcinoma (ASCC) is usually cured with chemoradiotherapy; however, some patients relapse, require salvage abdominoperineal resection or develop metastatic disease. Approximately 90% of cases are driven by high-risk human papillomavirus, most commonly HPV16. Conventional surveillance using clinical examination and imaging may have limited sensitivity and specificity and is not individualized by recurrence risk. Circulating biomarkers (CBs), particularly circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), have emerged as promising methods for real-time disease monitoring. We systematically reviewed available evidence evaluating CBs across treatment timepoints in localized ASCC. Methods: A PROSPERO-registered review (ID: 1133987) was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane CENTRAL, Web of Science, and major conference proceedings (ASCO, ESMO, ASTRO) were searched on 30 November 2025. We included prospective or retrospective studies (≥10 patients) with stage I–III disease treated with curative-intent chemoradiotherapy that reported CBs, assay characteristics, and at least one clinical outcome. Studies with predominantly localized cohorts were included even if small proportions of metastatic patients were present, provided results relevant to curative-intent populations could be interpreted. Data were synthesized narratively by timepoint (baseline, mid-treatment, end of treatment, post-treatment/surveillance) and assay type given methodological heterogeneity. Results: Fifteen studies were included. CB assays comprised four categories: viral HPV ctDNA assays, tumor-informed ctDNA assays, non-specific total cell-free DNA (cfDNA) quantification, and circulating tumor cell (CTC)-based assays. Baseline detection rates varied by assay type. Viral HPV ctDNA assays demonstrated detection rates of 59–100%, while tumor-informed ctDNA assays showed rates of 79–89%. Across studies, higher CB detection rates and levels were generally associated with greater tumor burden, including more advanced T and N stage disease. Mid-treatment ctDNA clearance identified patients with excellent locoregional control and progression-free survival, whereas persistent ctDNA was associated with treatment failure. End-of-treatment and surveillance ctDNA positivity predicted recurrence within individual cohorts, with reported sensitivities of 80–90%, specificities of 95–99%, and molecular lead times preceding clinical or radiographic detection. In contrast, non-tumor-specific cfDNA dynamics showed more variable prognostic associations and were less consistently linked to tumor burden. Conclusions: Across heterogeneous assays, CB dynamics provide clinically meaningful prognostic information in localized ASCC, particularly when measured during treatment and early surveillance. Viral HPV and tumor-informed ctDNA may have the potential to guide follow-up intensity and inform future escalation or de-escalation strategies; however, prospective, standardized trials are needed to define actionable thresholds and test ctDNA-guided management.